Analysis of How 35 Cryptos will Perform in 5 Potential Economic Scenarios
The following information is NOT financial advice. Not at all in any way. Got it? Good.
Having said that I do have an opinion on how certain crypto currencies and tokens will perform in different scenarios. Each of these scenarios is possible as we move out of the old, fiat currency system and into a crypto based system.
There are 3 parts to this Friday Road Trip. The first part is about the parameters of each scenario. It is likely that none of the scenarios presented with happen exactly as portrayed but rather be a combination of all five in some way will transpire over time. The second part is a breakdown of 35 coins and how I think they will perform in each scenario. Finally, I have added a video presentation discussing what I think is the most likely scenario and how it will roll out over time.
NOTE: The future is a funny place and likes to toss in curve balls at every turn so NOTHING written below should be taken as the Gospel.
You are now forewarned so here are the 5 scenarios:
Scenario #1: Good Guys WIN (Game Over 2020)
This is the "Pull the Band Aid" scenario. In this scenario the collapse of Deutsche Bank is allowed to happen over the course of the summer destroying the global derivative market. Given that the counterparts to DB hold the other half of the $50T there is NO BANK OR FINANCIAL SYSTEM that will survive. This includes the US economic system and the US Dollar itself. This is a very, very chaotic scenario that will shut down the crypto markets along with all other markets. The good thing is that the Good Guys have been preparing for this for over 100 years so there is likely a reboot plan that includes a combination of solutions. Firstly an allocation of Constitutional US Dollars backed by gold(not enough silver), the embracing and protecting of crypto currencies as well as physical gold and silver. Although this scenario will be very chaotic it will be the most bullish for most cryptos in the long run. Some cryptos will not survive this scenario due to their connection to the old system. Also, the Good Guys will take out the deep state actors in the crytpo world so there are many compromised coins that may be harmed greatly.
Scenario #2: Good Guys Continue Smooth Transition (Game over 2020-2021)
This is the scenario that has been playing out over the past 9 years. Yes, Bitcoin was released by the US Government as a potential alternative to the debt based fiat system that currently exists. The idea was to continue to rig all markets and give the cryptos TIME to be implemented into the Economic System on a broad scale. If this scenario continues the banking system will continue to limp along for a few years and the cryptos will slowly but surely gain market share in every industry. More and more sound regulation will be implemented as the booms and busts are smoothed out. The Crypto Criminals will be surgically removed from the crypto space but it may take 2-3 years. This is the "more of the same" scenario with the good guys continuing to make strides behind the scenes.
Scenario #3: Bad Guys Regain Power (Game over 2020-2021)
This scenario will be obvious to spot as the Anti-Trump Deep State will gain ground, and Trump will be marginalized if not impeached for some ridiculous charge. This is what the mainstream media and their controllers surely want but the Good Guys are fighting them tooth and nail. Currently the Good Guys have the upper hand but the fight is not over and if more and more of the Deep State agenda gets implemented it will be a bad scenario for our country. In this scenario, the Bad Guys/Deep State will begin to favor their more centralized crypto-currencies, platforms and tokens and attack the truly decentralized ones. This scenario is very bad and could lead to the total defeat of the Good Guys and loss of our sovereignty.
Scenario #4: Bad Guys WIN (Game Over 2020)
This is the worst of all the scenarios. It culminates in the loss or our freedoms and the loss of our Nation. It was that path we've been on for the last 50 years and the planned End Game is NOT GOOD. Think "One World Government" controlling a "One World Currency" with wealth, power and control all centralized into the hands of a few. A communistic structure at it's best and a "Slave State" at it's worst. No personal freedoms or Liberty...so sad but it was where we were headed. Although we are not 100% safe from this future yet, I think the "Good Guys" will win this battle but it doesn't hurt to analyze how the cryptos would react to this outcome. When looking at this scenario the overwhelming requirement for the surviving cryptos is that the Bad Guys get to control it. The best for them would be a crypto that looks decentralized but is actually controlled by the Bad Guys behind the scenes. (Much like it is suspected that Block.one controls EOS and Blockstream controls Bitcoin)
Scenario 5: Uncontrolled Chaos (Game Over 2021)
I was going to call this the "Mad Max" Scenario but cryptos would not be around in such a world. No electricity or infrastructure means no computers to use crypto in. The Uncontrolled Chaos scenario is more of a breakdown of global governmental authority. A total lost of trust in all official systems. This is the kind of world the Anarcho-Capitalist dream of. No regulatory body or laws overseeing the markets and yet it still functions for the most part. In this scenario the banks have destroyed themselves but there is no official plan to "reboot" the system that anyone will buy into. Humanity is on it's own in the World that remains and there is no Nanny State to turn to. There are no protections and people get burned by bad investments everyday...until they LEARN FROM EXPERIENCE. A viable trigger may be the failure of a too big to fail bank that the people decide will not be bailed out. Let the piece fall where they may...and boy do they fall!
So those are the 5 different scenarios and here are the 35 coins I analyzed as to how they likely perform in each scenario. I remind you that these are my own feelings about how these coins will be accepted by the market (if there was a market) and how humanity will value them going forward.
I fully expect many people to disagree with some of my analysis but feel free to do it for yourself...afterall, you are the one that puts your money at risk. You really shouldn't take that responsibility lightly and if you are in the cryptos - you have probably thought though of many scenarios already!
Note: At the bottom of the document is the meaning behind the colored codded coins.
Also, the Video discussion of this chart is posted below the chart.
Have fun - Bix
